So far, the Timberwolves are doing exactly what they did to the Suns to the defending NBA champs. Does this re-contextualize what happened to Phoenix in the first round?

-Gerald

Should Timberwolves-Nuggets change our opinion of the Suns?

When the Phoenix Suns got swept in the first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs, so much of the conversation revolved around what was so wrong with the Suns, instead of what was so right with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Now that the Wolves have built a 2-0 lead over the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets in the conference semifinals, it appears Minnesota is finally getting its due...and making Phoenix look slightly better in retrospect.

In their first-round sweep of the Suns, the Timberwolves won all four games by an average margin of +15.0, boasting a defensive rating of 109.3. Through the first two games of their series against the Nuggets' high-powered offense, the Wolves have been even better, with an average point differential of +16.5 and a stifling defensive rating of 97.8.

Granted, these are small sample sizes we're talking about in both cases, and the Wolves haven't finished the job against Denver just yet. It'd be downright shocking for the Nuggets to roll over and die coming off last year's dominant title run, and if they were somehow able to come back and win the series, suddenly this narrative loses steam.

But watching this smothering Timberwolves defense put together one of the greatest defensive halves I've ever seen in a playoff game, it was hard not to think of how they did the exact same thing to Phoenix.

Much like Devin Booker, Jamal Murray was so visibly frustrated having to contend with Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker that he threw a heat pad on the court and earned himself a $100,000 fine. Much like Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic suddenly looked human against Minnesota's all-encompassing length and physicality. And much like Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen, most of the other guys like Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope struggled to build any sort of momentum against such a versatile switchable defense.

Denver has struggled with bouts of inconsistency throughout the season, similar to Phoenix but on a lesser scale. Most people assumed they'd flip the switch for the playoffs, but that haven't even been able to find the switch against a Timberwolves squad that's kept them fumbling in the dark. For the second straight series, the Wolves simply look tougher, deeper and just flat-out better. Both Phoenix and Denver may wind up in the same boat after being favored in these matchups, only to be surprised by how ready Minnesota has been.

All this is a long-winded way of wondering: Maybe the Suns weren't as bad as we thought?

Granted, even if the Wolves sweep the Nuggets, sweep their Western Conference Finals opponent and go on to win it all, that doesn't mean anyone should suddenly feel good about the Suns. Regardless of how far Minnesota goes in the playoffs, at the end of the day, Phoenix still got swept, in the first round, despite being a team with title aspirations.

If contending for championships is truly the goal, then even in the best-case scenario where Minnesota goes on to win the whole thing, guess what? The Suns still have to measure themselves against the best, and the best unceremoniously swept them out of the first round.

There should be no doubt that the Suns have to improve over the summer. The chemistry, continuity and locker room leadership needs to improve. The roster's center rotation, wing depth and size has to improve. The Big 3's ability to rise to the occasion against younger, fully healthy opponents has to improve. Even if the Wolves continue to prove that first-round series was more about how good they are rather than how bad the Suns were, Phoenix isn't "right there."

Remember, the Suns struggled with injury and inconsistency at various points throughout the season, and even if they wind up being able to say they got beat by the conference champs or NBA champs, they have a lot of ground to make up in the West. Getting swept at any point in the playoffs, no matter the opponent, means you've still got moves to make if the goal is winning a ring.

But there is some consolation in the fact that Minnesota's defense was able to swarm Phoenix's Big 3 just like they're doing to a Nuggets starting five that has championship experience and way more continuity together. So much of that post-sweep conversation revolved around the Big 3 and whether they were fully up to snuff, but Minnesota is currently proving their defense is capable of maintaining historic levels of suffocation against any elite scorers.

That's a small consolation prize, and it'll feel even smaller for a fanbase that's seen their favorite team get knocked out by the eventual champs far too often. In fact, of the 32 times the Suns have been eliminated from the playoffs prior to this season, the team that beat Phoenix went on to win the title 15 times, and they at least won the Western Conference 21 times.

Not all of those eliminations were examples of great Phoenix teams that simply came up short against the eventual champs, but it's borderline traumatizing how many Suns contenders with legitimate championship hopes just ran into a buzz saw opponent that went on to win the whole thing. Even last year, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant took two games off the eventual champs in the second round, in a series where the winner of that matchup probably would've gone on to win it all.

That was Suns fans' consolation last year. There won't be as much of that same goodwill this time, even if the Timberwolves continue to shock the world and follow in Denver's footsteps on the path to a championship. Last year, it was Book and KD against the world. This year, armed with a Big 3, a new coach and a revamped roster, Phoenix fell short again. They clearly still have work to do.

But again, two things can be true at once! Maybe Mat Ishbia was right when he said the house isn't on fire.

After that first-round sweep, the "blow it up" hysteria immediately started, with doom and gloom about Phoenix's immediate title window and their long-term future seeping in. Another year of continuity alone isn't going to suddenly push the Suns past the Timberwolves or the OKC Thunder in the West, but at the very least, this second-round series is proving they lost to a legitimately dangerous team that's peaking at the right time.

In other words, if the defending champs look just as frustrated and inept, maybe in retrospect, Phoenix's biggest problem was the historically smothering defense they ran into. Sometimes in sports, the hardest thing to do is to admit that your opponent is simply better. That seems to be the case with the Timberwolves and Suns, and if they continue this dominance over the Nuggets, they'll drive the point home even further.

The question now is what Phoenix needs to do in order to make their opponents feel that way next year. Answering that question isn't easy, but it's a lot better place to start the conversation than wondering, "Are the Suns doomed?"